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Credit Crunch affected Dubai |
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Credit Crunch affected Dubai
How has the Credit Crunch affected Dubai?
Most UAE banks were already owned or partly owned by the governments and therefore did not need to have money pumped into them like the rest of the world banks.
Liquidity has been a problem for some banks but the UAE government agreed to safeguard all deposits in all Arab banks for three years and some of the larger foreign banks also had their deposits guaranteed by the UAE government.
It is unlikely foreigners will be able to get a mortgage if they buy a property in Dubai but that has been a problem for many years in any case. Some locals may have to pay a slightly higher deposit than before say 10% instead of 5% as all banks try and reduce their lending risks.
The UAE stock market has experienced much lower and gentler swings as the underline strength of the stocks remains sound.
The reasons for the inherent strength of the economy are as follows:
- The Free Zone areas of Dubai represent 65% of GDP and have grown on average at a steady 10% per annum for ten years. The fiscal policies in Dubai have encouraged manufacturing and trade to take place in Dubai and this is not likely to be affected as in other countries due to lower overheads and better infrastructure. 8-10% of the economy is dependent on Gas and Oil that is likely to be finished by 2015. Not a major share of GDP but when this was as high as 47% it ensured that there was no National Debt to the degree that Major economies had to endure and again this has meant the underlying strength of the economy is very sound.
- Only 25% of current GDP is from Tourism, hence any reduction in travel due to the world recession will not impact too severely.
- Moreover, and without doubt the biggest reason why Dubai will not face a major affect because of the credit crunch is that Demand absolutely exceeds supply for property.
- In 2007 the number of residential units actually delivered was 26,009. In 2008 it is expected 57,788 units will be completed and in 2009 56,588. 2010 we expect 36,844, 2011 50,000 and in 2012 30,000.
- The demand for units from the following sources is 51,971 in 2008, 52,579 in 2009 and 54950 in 2010:
- Emirates Airlines & DNATA
- Dubai Healthcare City
- Dubai International Financial Centre
- New Business Licenses
- Hotel Staff Accommodation
- Consulting Engineers & Contractors
These sources are clearly not a reflection of the whole demand for residential property and therefore it is right to conclude that demand will outstrip supply for some years to come. For example His Royal Highness Sheikh Mohammed has recently agreed to loosen visa requirements for Chinese Nationals resulting in the Chinese government promising to send 1m Chinese to Dubai by 2010.
There are many more statistics that can be looked at as analysts try and foresee the future. What is certain is that there is no shortage of companies and workers wanting to settle in Dubai and with the proof that Dubai can deliver the infrastructure (just witness the new roads and monorail) becoming more apparent and the incredibly tight regulations introduced in the Real Estate sector then it is difficult to see where else in the world can investors put their money in a safer and vibrant environment.
Recently a journalist interviewed His Royal Highness Sheikh Mohammed and asked what % of his vision had Dubai achieved? His Royal Highness replied 10%. The journalist asked when all the current development is finished in say two years time, what % then would have been achieved? 8% replied His Royal Highness. How can this be said the journalist? Because as Dubai gets bigger my vision will be bigger!
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